Ua hōʻike aku nei ʻo China International Finance Securities i ka honuaʻO ka mea hoʻolele ʻopika Manaʻo ʻia ka mākeke e piʻi ma luna o $ 10 biliona e 2021, me ka mākeke kūloko ma mua o 50 pakeneka.I ka makahiki 2022, ua hoʻokomo ʻia ka 400GʻO ka mea hoʻolele ʻopikas ma kahi nui a me ka piʻi wikiwiki o ka nui o 800GʻO ka mea hoʻolele ʻopikas ua manaʻo ʻia, me ka ulu mau ʻana o ka noi no nā huahana chip optical kiʻekiʻe.Hoʻohui ʻia, e like me Omdia, ka wahi mākeke no nā chips optical i hoʻohana ʻia ma 25G a ma luna o ka heluʻO ka mea hoʻolele ʻopikas ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia e hoʻonui mai ka USD 1.356 biliona ma 2019 a i ka USD 4.340 biliona ma 2025, me ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki he 21.40 pakeneka.
Ke nānā nei i ka ulu ʻana o ka noi no nā chips optical mai ka wānana o kaʻO ka mea hoʻolele ʻopika ʻoihana.
Ua wānana ʻo LightCounting e ulu ka mākeke transceiver honua i ka 4.34% i 2023, me ka nui o ka ulu makahiki o 11.43% mai 2024 a 2027.
Wahi a ka hōʻaiʻē o CICC, ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke honua o nā chips optical no nā kamaʻilio optical ma 2021 e manaʻo ʻia he 14.67 biliona yuan.ʻO ka nui o ka mākeke o 2.5G, 10G, 25G a ma luna o nā chips optical he 1.167 billion yuan, 2.748 billion yuan, a me 10.755 billion yuan.Ua wānana ʻo Omdia ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke o nā chips optical i hoʻohana ʻia no 25G a ma luna o nā modula optical i 2021 e 1.913 biliona kālā ʻAmelika, a i ʻole 13 biliona yuan.
Ma muli o kēia mau ʻikepili, ua manaʻo ʻia e helu ʻia ka mākeke chip optical communication honua no 18-20% o ka mākeke module optical ma 2021. ʻO ka nui o ka mākeke chip optical e helu ʻia ma muli o 18% o ka mākeke module optical haʻahaʻa. a me 20% o ka mākeke kiʻekiʻe.
I kēia manawa, ʻo ka hapa nui o nā transceivers optical me ka hoʻolālā huahana makua e hoʻohana i ka hoʻolālā ʻehā o ka PSM4 a i ʻole CWDM4.ʻO nā ʻāpana kikoo o 10G a ma lalo e pili like me 1G, 10G, a me 40G mau modula optical.Wahi a ka ʻikepili wanana o LightCounting, e hoʻomaka ana ka hoʻouna ʻana o 1G, 10G, a me 40G digital communication optical modules mai 2023, e hopena ana i ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke mai 614 miliona US kālā ma 2022 a i 150 miliona US kālā ma 2027. ʻO ka lawe ʻana i ka 18% e like me ka hapa, ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke chip optical e manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule mai US $ 111 miliona i 2022 a i US $ 27 miliona i 2027.
ʻOi aku ka hoʻolālā pūnaewele kikowaena ʻikepili i ka ʻōnaehana 10G/40G CLOS kahiko.Hoʻohana ka hapa nui o nā ʻoihana Pūnaewele ma ka hale hoʻolālā 25G/100G CLOS, aʻo nā hui ʻAmelika ʻĀkau ke neʻe nei i nā hale kiʻi kiʻekiʻe o 100G/400G CLOS a me 800G.ʻO nā modules optical digital kiʻekiʻe ma ka laulā o 100G-800G ka mea nui e hoʻohana i nā pahu laser DFB a me EML, a ʻo ka helu baud he 25G, 53G, 56G.ʻO ka hapa nui o nā huahana 800G optical module i kēia manawa ma ka mākeke e hoʻohana i ka hoʻolālā 8 * 100G a hoʻohana i ʻewalu 56G EML PAM4 mau pahu optical.
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili wanana a LightCounting i ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā modules optical e hana ana ma 25G, 100G, 400G a me 800G e hoʻomau i ka ulu ʻana mai 2023 a 2027. I kēia manawa, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ka nui o ka mākeke mai USD 4.450 biliona a i USD 5 biliona ma 2022. ʻO ia ka US $ 7.269 biliona ma 2027, he 10.31% ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o 5 mau makahiki.Manaʻo ʻia ka nui o ka mākeke chip optical e ulu mai US $ 890 miliona a i US $ 1.453 biliona.
Ukueahope-haul Paʻa ka noi 10G, ke ulu nei ka noi 25G
Ma Nowemapa 2022, ua hōʻea ka ʻōnaehana 5G o Kina i kahi milestone, me 2.287 miliona mau kahua kahua i hoʻonohonoho ʻia ma ka ʻāina.ʻOiai ua lohi ka ulu ʻana o ke kūkulu ʻana i ke kahua kahua, hōʻike ka ʻikepili me ka hoʻomau mau ʻana o ke komo ʻana o 5G a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā noi, ke piʻi nei ka noi no ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā pūnaewele midhaul a me backhaul.ʻOiai ke emi nei ka hoʻouna ʻana o 10G a me 25G optical module mai 2022 a i 2027, ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomaikaʻi ka nui o ka mākeke o nā modula optical fronthaul uila e 2026, i ka wā e hoʻomaka ai nā modules optical ma luna o 50G i nā pūʻulu.Manaʻo nā poʻe loea ʻoihana ʻaʻole hiki i nā modula optical 50G a me 100G ke hoʻokuʻu i ka rebound o ka mākeke fronthaul 5G a hiki i 2026, ʻoiai ʻo 25G a ma luna o 5G fronthaul optical modules e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma $ 420 miliona ma waena o 2023 a me 2025. Ke hoʻomau nei ka noi no 5G. ulu, nā moku o 5G mid-haul a me 10G optical transceivers e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui mai 2.1 miliona mau ʻāpana ma 2022 i 3.06 miliona mau ʻāpana ma 2027, me kahi CAGR ʻelima makahiki o 7.68%.Manaʻo ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke e hoʻokūpaʻa i ka 10G a ma lalo o ka mākeke module optical ma $90 miliona, a ʻo ka mākeke chip optical e pili ana i manaʻo ʻia ma kahi o $18.1 miliona.Ma ka mākeke waena a me backhaul, ua manaʻo ʻia ka noi no 25G, 100G, a me 200G optical modules e mālama i ka ulu wikiwiki mai 2023, a ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke o 25G a ma luna o waena a me backhaul optical modules e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ʻia mai US $ 103 miliona ma 2022 i ka US $ 171 miliona ma 2027. ʻO ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki he 10.73%.Manaʻo ʻia ka mākeke chip optical e hoʻonui ʻia mai kahi $ 21 miliona a i $ 34 miliona.
Ke hoʻomau nei ka ulu ʻana o ka noi 10G PON uea
Hoʻonohonoho ʻia ka hoʻolālā 14th Five-Year Plan a Kina no ka ʻoihana infocomm i nā pahuhopu nui no ka ʻōnaehana kamepiula o ka ʻāina.I loko o kēia manawa, hoʻolālā ke aupuni e hoʻolālā i kahi pūnaewele fiber optic gigabit e wikiwiki i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā "kūlanakauhale gigabit" a hoʻonui i ka uhi o nā pūnaewele gigabit a puni ka ʻāina.I ka pau ʻana o 2022, manaʻo nā ʻoihana kelepona ʻekolu i ka huina o nā mea hoʻohana paʻa i ka Internet broadband e hiki i 590 miliona.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo ka helu komo o 100Mbps a ma luna o 554 miliona, kahi piʻi o 55.13 miliona ma mua o ka makahiki i hala.I ka manawa like, ua hiki i ka helu o nā mea hoʻohana me ka helu o 1000 Mbps a ma luna aʻe i 917.5 miliona, kahi piʻi o 57.16 miliona ma mua o ka makahiki i hala.ʻOiai ʻo kēia mau holomua, aia nō kahi wahi no ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana, me ka manaʻo o ka mea kākau inoa ʻo Gigabit he 15.6% wale nō ma ka hopena o 2022. No kēia hopena, ke hāpai nei ke aupuni i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā pūnaewele 10G-PON i nā kūlanakauhale a me nā wahi nui.kūlanakauhale, e kālele ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka uhi.Ma Kekemapa 2022, ʻo ka nui o nā awa 10G PON me nā mana lawelawe pūnaewele Gigabit e hiki i 15.23 miliona, e uhi ana ma mua o 500 miliona mau hale ma ka ʻāina.Hana kēia i ka nui o ka pūnaewele gigabit a me ka pae uhi i waena o ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa ma ka honua.Ke nānā nei i mua, e hoʻomau ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka mākeke PON, a wānana ʻo LightCounting i nā hoʻouna ʻana oPONʻO nā transceivers optical ma lalo o 10G e emi mai ka 2022. ʻO ka mea likeʻole, ua manaʻoʻia ka ulu wikiwikiʻana o nā moku 10G PON, a hiki i ka 26.9 miliona mau'āpana ma 2022 a me 73 miliona mau'āpana ma 2027, me ka CAGR 5 makahiki o 22.07%.ʻOiai e emi ana ka nui o ka mākeke o 10G optical modules mai kona kiʻekiʻe ma 2022, e emi pū ana ka mākeke chip optical like mai US $ 141.4 miliona a i US $ 57 miliona.Ke nānā nei i mua, manaʻo ʻia ʻo 25G PON a me 50G PON e hoʻokō i ka hoʻolaha liʻiliʻi ma 2024, a ukali ʻia e ka hoʻolaha nui ʻana i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.Ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke o 25G a ma luna o PON optical modules e ʻoi aku ma mua o 200 miliona US kālā ma 2025, a ʻo ka mākeke chip optical e pili ana i ka 40 miliona US kālā.Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, e hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻōnaehana kikohoʻe o Kina i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mar-22-2023